That variation is wide enough to swing a few more teams farther apart, due to chance alone, than the 82 game distribution. As you can see the 48-games sample is much wider than the 82 game sample. The figure above shows the distribution of PDO FEN attributed to chance for 48 games and 82 games. success or failure).We can use the normal approximation interval to determine the distribution for the "chance" part of PDO FEN. It tells us the standard deviation (the spread of the distribution) for a proportion (an independent event that has only 2 outcomes eg. This has been worked out mathematically, called the normal approximation interval. This distribution shows us how likely we are to pull the average (3 socks) or the unlikely 0. What we would eventually find after thousands of iterations is a mound looking-thing called a normal distribution. We could plot the number of black socks pulled for each iteration.
However, life is random, and on some iterations we pull the black sock 4 or 5 times, sometimes none. If we tried this about 30 times (call it 1 iteration) we expect to pull about 3 socks on average. However, sometimes we would pull a black sock. Mathematically, we would assume that the chance of pulling a black sock is 1/10 or 10%, a pretty unlikely event. Let’s say you load a sock drawer with 10 socks, 9 whites and 1 black. The best way to explain how we figure out the distribution of chance is through an example Let’s first look at the variation expected in PDO FEN by simple chance alone (It turns out that PDO is mostly chance, with very little attributable skill). We’ll compare the variation expected in PDO FEN, and the potential variation in points, as predicted by PDO FEN and Fenwick%. I spent much of my lockout time working on this post over at NHLN, which goes into great detail about the importance of PDO. Here is the best description of PDO written to date.
For new visitors to the site, (and I can’t actually imagine there being one) PDO is by far the most important stat to understand in hockey.
#Pdo sdhc plus
For the rest of this article I’ll be referring to PDO as either PDO (Sh% + Sv%) or PDO Fen (were Sh% and Sv% are goals per shots plus missed shots, EV, no empty net data). Traveling through the most important determinates of winning, PDO and Fenwick%, we’ll take an analytic look into what that may actually mean for playoff chances. Every point will count, from the very beginning of the season. As I’m sure you’ll be sick of hearing by the end of the first week. Each game accounts for (1/48 =) 2.1% of total points instead of (1/82 =) 1.2%, in other words, almost twice as important.
#Pdo sdhc full
That’s 38 fewer points needed than a full regular season, which on average requires around 92 to make the playoffs. The average points-per-game over the last 7 years has been 1.117, which means that the best prediction for points needed to make the playoffs is (1.117 x 48 =) 53.6, or 54 points. Less games results in less time for the cream to rise to the top. As we all know, odd bounces and lucky/unlucky streaks have an increased influence with small sample sizes, rendering returns for the truly talented diminished. As news broke in the early hours of Jan 6 th, reports began to surface of a shortened 48 game schedule.